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Broadband Access
Mobile broadband growth translates into mobile VoIP opportunity
VoIP has potential to help raise revenue
by Kevin Mitchell, Acme Packet
The mobile broadband market is buzzing with the recently announced acquisitions of mobile packet core vendors Starent and WiChorus along with the continued 3G subscriber growth and an increase in the number of LTE commitments and trials. But with the industry focused on the growth of data and video traffic, it prompts a look at the status of mobile VoIP opportunity. From my point of view, the starting point is broadband. I say: Where there is broadband, there is the opportunity for VoIP subscribers and revenues.
Infonetics Research projects that the total fixed broadband market (DSL, fiber, cable) in 2009 will reach nearly 450 million subscribers worldwide. Fixed VoIP, including residential subscribers and business IP centrex lines, is predicted to close the year at over 130 million lines/subscribers. This is a penetration of 30% (although this is inflated given the business T1/T3 or metro Ethernet lines that are not included in the broadband figure). Fixed VoIP is growing at a 40% compound annual growth rate through 2013 and given the projected 615 million fixed broadband subscribers in that year, penetration should increase to around 35%.
In terms of speed, many deployed mobile broadband RANs have caught up or will soon catch up with fixed broadband speeds. Infonetics Research projects that there will be slightly over 300 million 3G and 4G mobile broadband subscribers in the world (via voice and data plans on a phone or card/dongles for PCs and laptops).
Looking at the state of mobile VoIP, In-Stat recently published a report entitled Mobile VoIP—Transforming the Future of Wireless Voice. Counting mobile VoIP as VoIP services delivered by mobile service providers or over the top ASPs to 3G or 4G devices, the research firm projects subscribers to grow from less than 10 million in 2009 to almost 300 million in 2013. This represents an increase in penetration from single digits in 2009 to 25% of the over 1.1 billion mobile broadband subscribers in 2013.
Because In-Stat’s report dealt only with VoIP, it didn’t address the other SIP over 3G opportunity -- rich communication suite and related interactive communication services that complement, not replace, the circuit-switched telephony. RCS is just getting underway (trials begin this quarter and more activity expected in 2010). RCS addresses the large and rapidly growing mobile broadband subscriber base and the tens of millions of subscribers who could embrace that opportunity in just a few years time.
This is a slightly imperfect comparison between fixed and mobile VoIP, as the figures do not adequately capture the users of fixed VoIP as the nature of the two broadband markets is different: A fixed broadband line can serve multiple people in a home or a business, whereas mobile broadband is generally associated with a single person. So, the fixed broadband market is related to the number of homes or business sites in a region, whereas the addressable market for mobile broadband is the overall population.
Regardless, where there is broadband, there is the opportunity for VoIP and other interactive communications services. The mobile broadband subscriber base is already large and growing much faster than fixed. This opens the door for more VoIP subscribers on all types of devices and additional revenues for over the top providers and a way to build a loyal subscriber base that delivers stable ARPU for mobile operators. SIP opens the door for more than just delivering voice and data, but a holistic mix of interactive multimedia communications.
Kevin Mitchell is Director of Wireless Solutions Marketing for Acme Packet
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