|
NewsGlobe: Currents
100 million WiMAX subscribers by 2014, says Maravedis
Device variety and large-scale deployments to drive growth
by Telecommunications staff, from news reports
A new report by the Maravedis analyst firm predicts the
number of WiMAX subscribers worldwide will top 100 million by
2014. It is slightly more bullish than a report published earlier
this year by Juniper Research, which predicted 80 million
WiMAX subscribers by 2013
(Mobile WiMAX subscribers to exceed 80 million by 2013, predicts Juniper Research) but the reasoning of the two analyst
companies are the same: more devices (and applications) will
drive adoption.
“WiMAX chipsets will start to be embedded in laptops in the
second half of 2008, into handheld devices in 2009, and into
consumer electronics by early 2010,” says Adlane Fellah,
president and CEO of Maravedis and co-author of its yearly
report, WiMAX, LTE and Broadband Wireless Worldwide Market
Trends. “This is definitely a key assumption, as large scale
deployments by companies such as BSNL and Sprint start to
materialize in 2008-2009 despite current challenges.”
As opposed to the 3GGP camp, whose IPR is dominated by
Qualcomm, WiMAX suppliers are making concerted efforts to
lower royalties through cooperation with each other (WiMAX
IPR is held by a wide variety of suppliers). In this way, WiMAX
hopes to become embedded into a multitude of devices
without any dramatic increases in device cost.
There are still some hurdles for WiMAX to overcome, not
least the absence of any certified devices for the mobile
WiMAX standard (802.16e). This has not stopped, however, a
slew of pre-certified devices coming onto market. “As
predicted by Maravedis, more than 100 mobile WiMAX
devices have been announced or made available
commercially,” says Jeff Orr, senior analyst at Maravedis and
co-author of the report. The first certified mobile devices are
expected to arrive this year.
While Sprint Nextel is generally viewed as the flagship mobile
WiMAX network in terms of scale, which is expected to go live
Q208, India has enormous WiMAX potential. BSNL and VSNL
are already rolling out extensive fixed WiMAX networks across
India’s major cities and the Indian government is expected
this spring to auction 20MHz of spectrum in the 2.5GHz band
to two more players (20MHz each).
BSNL has already been awarded 20MHz spectrum in the
2.5GHz band, which, unlike the 3.3GHz band currently used
for fixed WiMAX rollouts in India, is standardized (better
economies of scale) and designed for customer self-
installation. Fixed WiMAX equipment, due to lack of in-
building coverage, can require truck rollouts to mount the
outdoor CPE on the building, which puts added pressure on
the business case.
|
