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Broadband Access
Point Topic to Aid Broadband Planning
Unveils ‘Unique’ Spatial Forecasting Model at BBWF
by Ken Wieland
Forecasting the levels of future broadband usage just got
more sophisticated – at least in the UK.
Point Topic has unveiled its
new and ‘unique’ spatial forecasting model at BBWF. Instead
of predicting broadband take-up on a nationwide basis, the
spatial approach allows detailed insight into future broadband
take-up in specific geographical areas. Or, to put another
way, at the local exchange level.
“We believe we are the only independent market research
firm in the world who has developed a dynamic spatial
forecasting model for broadband usage in such depth,” says
Tim Johnson, chief executive at Point Topic. “There are other
spatial approaches out there but those are usually
proprietary.”
Point Topic’s spatial forecasting model, as applied to the UK
market, involves collating data from numerous sources from
which the calculations are made.
These data sources include 1.7 million postcodes (along with
broadband availability indicators and estimates of residential
and broadband take-up for end 2005); DSL take-up rates by
UK regions at six-monthly intervals, starting at mid-2005 and
going through to mid-2006 (supplied by BT); publicly
available UK broadband statistics; and, importantly, input
from Point Topic’s broadband consumer surveys. These give
an insight into why certain social groups who haven’t signed
up for broadband broadband service choose not to do so, as well as providing an
estimate as to the percentage of each different socio-
economic group to sign up to broadband in the next 12
months.
Johnson, who chaired a half-day workshop on ‘best practice in
broadband market research’ at the BBWF event this morning,
believes Point Topic’s spatial forecasting model will be helpful
for a number of interested parties.
“Local authorities in the UK are very concerned about what the
government calls ‘digital inclusion’ and how to bring
broadband to those who don’t use it,” he says. “Although the
local authorities can know from census-type data where the
areas of wealth and deprivation are, our model can help them
look behind that data and focus on specific social groups.”
Local loop unbundlers would also find this information useful,
says Johnson, as they will be able to identify the local
exchanges that promise most chance for growth. The same
applies to hardware and service providers, argues Johnson, as
they will be able to determine the social groups and
geographical areas to focus their sales efforts.
But as Point Topic’s previous research has shown, the political objective of getting near full
broadband penetration by household in the UK will not
happen by market forces alone. “The highest level of
broadband take-up growth in the UK was H1 2005 but the rate
has slowed down ever since,” says Johnson. “But leaving large
parts of the population with no broadband access is not going
to be politically acceptable. Our forecasting model can help
guide strategies to remedy that.”
Johnson concedes that Point Topic’s spatial forecasting model
won’t work effectively where access to DSL take-up rates and
census data is not so readily available as it is in the UK.
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