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Mobile & Wireless
Southeast Asian mobile subscribers to exceed 453 million on US$32B turnover
Advanced markets girding for 4G while emerging nations still attract investors
by Ek Heng, Asia-Pacific Correspondent
Southeast Asia’s (SEA) mobile market is expected to exceed 453 million mobile subscribers by end 2009 representing 18.4 percent growth over 2008. In terms of revenue, the region’s telecom sector turnover is forecasted to top US$32 billion by this year-end growing 13.6 percent from last year.
The Frost and Sullivan latest analysis of its grouping of seven nations in SEA shows that the region had achieved a penetration of 72.5 percent in 2008 with US$28.3 billion in revenue and 383 million cellular customers.
For the period 2009-2014, the report projects that the region’s mobile subscribers will attain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8 percent to reach 606 million mobile customers. By 2014, the regional telecom sector will gross US36.2 billion in revenues based on CAGR of 4.2 percent.
Growth to come from new subscribers and contents requiring high-bandwidth
Because of its diversity, growth in SEA will come from increase in first-time customers with significant numbers from the rural areas within emerging markets as well as from demand in established markets by advanced users for higher value content and data.
Frost & Sullivan industry analyst Shaker Amin explains, "In saturated markets like Singapore and Malaysia with mobile penetration already at 131 percent and 97.8 percent respectively, growth, although marginal, will largely be fuelled by user migration to 3G, mobile broadband uptake and generally, the higher consumer appetite for mobile content and data services.
On the other hand, he continued: “Growing markets like Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines, with low mobile penetration and even lower fixed broadband penetration, are likely to see growth in new subscriber additions," he says, adding that these users are predominantly low average revenue per user comprising mainly prepaid subscribers.
Cambodia reports attracting US$234 million telecom investments
Among the SEA countries, recent noteworthy developments include an announcement on Tuesday by Cambodia’s Ministry of Telecommunications and Posts which said its mobile telco sector had attracted investments of US$234 million for the first six months this year. The investment figure was just US$35 million for the same period last year. Officials at the ministry said there are nearly five million mobile subscribers out of the total population of 14 million in the country.
One of the nine telcos in Cambodia, GT-Tell operating under the “Excell” brand is looking for an investor to fund its nationwide network. It currently offers CDMA-based service, including EV-DO mobile broadband services in Phnom Penh and surrounding provinces.
3G delay in Thailand and Philippines
In Thailand, there are media reports that the country’s long-delayed 3G auction will take place later in 2009. The National Telecommunications Commission ‘s chairman, General Choochart Promprasit was quoted in media as saying the terms and conditions for the auction for 2.1GHz spectrum would be available on its website by September for the regulator to issue licenses early 2010.
The payment of a one-time fee for 3G licences is a key step in reforming the revenue model for the sector in Thailand. Currently, mobile operators hand over a percentage of their billings to two state-owned concession holders, namely the Telephone Organisation of Thailand (TOT) and Communications Authority of Thailand (CAT), which analysts say is not conducive for industry development. There are also opportunities to invest in Thailand where telcos like CAT Telecom has announced its intention to look for overseas partner to provide 3G services.
Like Thailand, Philippines is also in the midst of decision making about auction for 3G as well as WiMAX licenses. By mid-2009 Philippines achieved nearly 80 percent penetration rate with 75 million mobile subscribers out of a population estimated at 92 million.
Indonesia overtakes Japan in terms of number of subscribers
One other noteworthy development is Indonesia which has overtaken Japan in terms of mobile phone customer base this year. Out of a population of 240 million, it recorded 130 million mobile subscribers to achieve 55 percent penetration rate. With just 7 percent of subscribers signed onto 3G services three years after its introduction, however, telcos in the country are set to step up the pace to market this mobile service.
As telcos in the region cope with varying degrees of success with their 3G implementation plans, Malaysia and Indonesia have moved to introduce WiMAX services while Singapore telcos are preparing to invest in long term evolution (LTE) mobile broadband services. Meanwhile, Malaysia saw its first WiMAX service provider — one out of four — becoming operational in August 2008 while Indonesia issued eight WiMAX licenses last month.
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