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Mobile & Wireless
LTE on a roll, says UMTS Forum
First commercial networks targeted for 2010
by Ken Wieland
At last year’s Mobile World Congress, Vodafone CEO Arun
Sarin famously threw down the gauntlet to 3G suppliers to get
their acts together and develop data-friendly networks as
quickly as possible. He noted that other data-centric
technologies, such as WiMAX, could “eat our lunch.”
Twelve months on, the message appears to have been taken
to heart by the 3GPP (3G Partnership Project), which promotes
the WCDMA path from 3G to an all-IP “4G” network known as
LTE (Long-Term Evolution).
“I think 90-95 percent of LTE standardization is already finished,”
says Jean-Pierre Bienamé, chairman of the UMTS Forum
(which supports the WCDMA evolution path), speaking to
Telecommunications on the eve of this year’s Mobile World
Congress in Barcelona, Spain. “I am confident that we can
finalize the LTE standard by the middle of this year, have the
first commercial deployments by 2010, and then have
widespread deployments during 2011.”
Last month, 3GPP announced that some of the RAN (Radio
Access Network) specifications had been frozen, but it was
generally believed at the time it wouldn’t be until the end of
the year that the 3GPP Release 8 specification for LTE would
be finalized.
Bienamé clearly sees it differently and insists no corners are
being cut, nor has there been any undue haste to catch up with
WiMAX in the wake of Sarin’s comments last year. “There has
been no more rush than necessary,” he says.
According to Bienamé, the NGMN (Next Generation Mobile
Network) initiative, created last year by some of the world’s
leading mobile operators to look at 4G options, is destined to
go for LTE. “I think if you take an open view, without being
partisan, there is a major trend for converging towards LTE,”
he says.
A major reason for this, argues Bienamé, is that LTE is a
more optimal path for existing 3G operators than alternative
4G technologies, such as WiMAX. “It will be possible to go
directly from HSPA to LTE within two years,” he says. “It’s a
modular solution because there is compatibility.”
These arguments are refuted by the likes of Intel, the
biggest supporter of WiMAX, which has invested more than
US$1 billion in WiMAX operations around the world. It argues that
the use of modular solutions to ensure backwards
compatibility with 3G could just as easily be implemented
alongside WiMAX as LTE.
“Nothing is impossible,” responds Bienamé, “but that would
take some time and development. Backwards compatibility is
easier with LTE.”
According to Bienamé, WiMAX will play a niche role going
forward compared to LTE (though not necessarily one that is
unattractive in market size). “We’ve always adopted the
position that mobile WiMAX will be complementary to 3G+ and
LTE, in much the same way as WiFi is to WCDMA,” he
says. “WiMAX is above all a MAN network. The full coverage
will be assured by cellular technologies.”
Nevertheless, Bienamé hints that the WiMAX opportunity will
diminish once LTE arrives. “The mobile WiMAX position is for
data, and 3G for voice. But operators will not invest in LTE
only for voice,” he says.
According to a study published by the UMTS Forum today
(written by Analysys), non-voice services over 3G networks
represent just 10-15 percent of revenues in developed markets.
LTE, says the report, will drive this proportion up to 36 percent by
2015.
The push towards LTE is being helped, says Bienamé, by
major CDMA2000 operators opting for the WCDMA path. This
includes Verizon Wireless in the U.S. and Vivo in Brazil. But
Bienamé also reports significant developments in the
CDMA2000 heartlands of South Korea. “KFT and SKT have
told us they will progressively migrate their "CDMA2000
subscriber base onto UMTS networks," he says. "Eventually, it
is likely they will not develop any dual-mode
CDMA2000/UMTS handsets."
According to Bienamé, that leaves only KDDI in Japan as the
major CDMA2000 operator. And even here, he senses a
change of direction in the KDDI boardroom. “They have
frozen development on EV-DO Rev A and are now assessing
Rev B and Rev C alongside all the other options, including
WiMAX and LTE. The decision criteria will be on cost reduction
per bit and it is here where LTE has an advantage.”
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