|
NewsGlobe: Commentary
Has telecom become boring?
Industry settles into a combination of monopoly and duopoly statuses
by A. Michael Noll (Special to Telecommunications)
After nearly a decade and a half of turmoil, telecommunication has
become boring.
The Bell breakup of 1984 was followed by years of tumultuous
acquisitions and divestitures until today the major two survivors are AT&T
(fomerly SBC) and Verizon. They do not compete with each other in their
landline businesses, but appear indeed to compete in their cellular
wireless businesses. The CATV operators do compete with AT&T and
Verizon in the landline arena, thereby creating a duopoly.
The telecommunications industry has thus settled into something of a
combination of monopoly and duopoly statuses with no new entrants.
Technology, too seems to have stagnated. There is fiber, wireless, and
the Internet — and nothing new and exciting on the horizon. Although
there should be public debate about the separation of content from
carriage, the government just does not seem interested in
telecommunication — perhaps being bored by the topic too. And with
boredom consuming telecommunication, investors and the media have
lost much interest.
Future uncertainty seems to have finally vanished — telecommunication
has become boring. All the fun of speculating about who will marry whom
or will divorce next just isn’t there any more.
About the only possible future fun is wondering whether AT&T and
Verizon will merge together — or will acquire a CATV operator. But the
fate of these two Bell giants and the CATV operators just does not seem
that exciting or entertaining as did all the deeds and misdeeds of the
past dysfunctional Bell family.
The future and fate of telecom manufacturing has become much more
interesting and less boring than the telecom service sector — what with
all the continued bad news and uncertainties as to who — if anyone — will
survive the profit squeezes. The global mergers of the past seem to
have soured — and who will survive is pure speculation. But since all the
money is in the provision of telecommunication service, who really cares
about the fate of manufacturing? It too is boring.
I’m glad I retired. I guess I too have become boring.
A. Michael Noll is Professor Emeritus of Communications at the Annenberg
School for Communication at the University of Southern California and a
frequent contributor to Telecommunications. His newest book, The
Evolution of Media, is published by Rowman & Littlefield.
|
